Saturday, June 16, 2012

Why Does Russell Westbrook Shoot So Much?

For most of this postseason, this has been the question when talking about the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Any time the Thunder have lost a game this postseason, this has been the question.  Even in games the Thunder have won, this has been the question asked during post-game press conferences.

This has held true during the NBA Finals.  After each game, countless experts tell us that there is no reason Russell Westbrook should be taking more shots than Kevin Durant.  Kevin Durant should be the one getting the most shots.  And this seems like a logical argument.  Durant is the most potent scorer the NBA has ever seen.  I know that statement probably seems foolish coming from a 21 year old and probably seems to be a bit hyperbolic in nature, but I honestly don't care.  You're looking at a 6'10" wing that shoots it like Reggie Miller and attacks the rim with his incredible length that reminds many of George Gervin.  He's just an absolutely deadly package on the offensive end and has led the league in scoring the last three seasons.  At times, he is absolutely unstoppable.  With all of this being said, Durant shouldn't be the one taking the most shots for the Thunder.

I know this statement seems to defy logic, but let's take a closer look at this argument.

When this idea is brought up to Durant after games, he will say things that either support Westbrook's decision making or suggest that taking a ton of shots just isn't in his personality.  These comments are typically seen by media types to represent Durant being a great leader and teammate rather than his actual preference.  This is where I believe the problem with this theory begins.

Durant has now played in 420 career games.  In those 420 career games, Durant has taken 25 or more shots in only 36 games.  I wasn't a math major at Maryville, but I do know that 36 of 420 games equates to less than 10 percent.  (Much of the same holds up in the playoffs.  Durant has shot 25 or more times in only four of his forty playoff games.)  This would tend to make me believe Durant doesn't necessarily prefer to take a ton of shots.   Some might argue that Durant hasn't had the chance to take a ton of shots because of the people he plays with, but I just don't see this argument holding up.  If Durant wanted to take significantly more shots, he could.  These shots may be of lower quality, but Durant could take more shots if he chose to.

For example, when we take a look at the league's best scorer before Durant we will find a much different story.  The last player to lead the league in scoring three years in a row was none other than Kobe Bryant.  In 1,323 career games, Kobe Bryant has taken 25 or more shots in 356 of the games.  That is over 25% of his games.  I'm not trying to say that this is a good or bad thing.  I'm simply saying that some players prefer to take a lot of shots and some players don't.  As a volume shooter and scorer, Bryant has been the league's best player and one of the ten greatest NBA players of all-time.  So, obviously this approach works out very well for some players.  I just don't see Durant being one of those players.

Another major logical flaw that occurs when discussing Durant getting more shots is the assumption that Durant will continue to shoot at the unbelievably high percentage he has in this postseason.  During this postseason, Durant is shooting 51.4%.  When taking a look at the games in which Durant has taken 25 or more shots in his career, Durant has only shot 51% or more in 11 of those 36 games.  I know obviously this is a small sample size, but, at the same time, the fact that this sample size is so small shows that Durant's preference is not to take a lot of shots and it may be because he simply knows that he isn't all that effective when he does.

On top of all of that, Durant isn't wrong when he says that the Thunder are better when Westbrook takes more shots than him.  This season the Thunder have a 29-8 record when Westbrook has more field goal attempts than Durant.  When Durant has more attempts than Westbrook, the Thunder are 27-14.  Both of those records are good, but clearly the Thunder are a better team when Westbrook takes more shots than Durant.  Will there be games when pundits think that the Thunder would have been better with Durant getting more shots?  Absolutely.  Are the Thunder ultimately more dangerous when Westbrook is taking more shots than Durant?  Yes.

So let's all just lay off Russell Westbrook for a little bit and figure out more ways to pick apart Lebron Jame's game.  Wait, what?

1 comment:

  1. I disagree, Westbrook is a point guard, he needs to act like one. He is a point guard, not a 2-guard.
    He has a .433 avg in FGM/FGA in postseason, if you add up all the first half avg in FGM/FGA he is .223 avg. He plays better in the second half than the first half. If you check regular season, the numbers are the similar. He needs to let other team play, he isn't a Iversion.

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