Playing on Paper

Because I work Sunday mornings, rather than going out in an awful costume last night, I sat on my couch and watched sports.  With the incredible amount of games on last night, this didn't seem all that bad.  I could have probably filled up five television screens and still not caught everything that I wanted to see last night.  As I watched, I had my computer in my lap with my Twitter feed open, which I would nonchalantly check during commercials or when I got bored.  (And I get bored pretty often, so it was updated a lot.)

Then I saw this tweet:

I did a double take.  Then a triple check.  Then I refreshed my page.  Then I googled "james harden trade" and modified the search results for the most recent occurrence.  Then I went back to Twitter.  And checked a few more times and then refreshed my feed a few more times.  After about 30 seconds of checking frantically, I finally believed it.

(This whole checking process was about both my disbelief as well as my gullibility.  Earlier this year, a bunch of people thought it would be cool to make fake accounts of popular sportswriters and I was tricked into retweeting Dwight Howard trade rumors and it made me feel really stupid.  I was determined not to allow this to happen again.)

And even with all of this checking, I still really didn't believe it.  In every single piece I had read regarding Harden and the Thunder, it seemed as though the Thunder would almost certainly go one of two routes in contract negotiations: Extend Harden before the October 31st deadline or deal with it after the season.  Those seemed like the only two logical options.  You would read each author go over the possibility of the Thunder trading Harden before the season, but ultimately rule it out because they didn't think the Thunder would risk this season for a more stable future.  They would ultimately decide that the allure of a championship would be enough for Sam Presti to keep together a team that had came 16 points from sweeping the NBA Finals this past year.

Looking back, that assumption was a mistake.  Presti has always prided himself on making the move that puts his franchise in the best possible position moving forward.  Presti has constantly been obsessed with the longevity of the Thunder.  "Winning a championship" has always been the goal, but never at the expense of the future of the franchise.  "Winning a championship" has always been a vision.  Something to aim for.  Something to move towards.  "Winning a championship" is something that general managers can use to justify decisions that they make that may hurt the franchise for the short-term, but ultimately will make the franchise better.  But in Oklahoma City, "winning a championship" was no longer a far-off vision, it was instead a reality.

Oklahoma City had created a team that could win a championship.  Maybe even multiple championships.  No general manager doublespeak.  No far-off vision.  Winning a championship in Oklahoma City was a reality.

With the trade of James Harden, that reality has once again turned into a vision, maybe not all that far-off, but certainly no longer staring you in the eyes.

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In Houston, Daryl Morey created a team based off advanced analytics.  Many people even started calling him "Dork Elvis", in reference to his celebrity status among NBA statheads across the blogosphere.  He was seen as a visionary in the NBA's advanced statistic revolution, but all of his numbers could only give Rockets fans a vision.  A glimmer of hope.  A team that constantly outperformed expectations because of Morey's ability to use numbers to find value in players other teams had discarded, but never a team that could truly copete for a championship.

So, Morey started to stockpile assets.  If a player was talented, Morey wanted him in Houston.  It didn't matter if he played the same position as one of his stars or if they had drafted another player at the same position last season.  All he cared about was having as many young, talented players as possible. 

Then the perfect opportunity presented itself.

The Lakers wanted Chris Paul, but needed to get a third team involved to match up contracts and talent with the Hornets.  Morey stepped in and traded for Pau Gasol.  Then David Stern stepped in.  And the Rockets didn't get Gasol.

Then the perfect opportunity presented itself.

Dwight Howard wanted out of Orlando.  The Rockets had the most talented package to offer.  Morey thought he was going to be able to get Howard, but Howard preferred Brooklyn...or Los Angeles...or he's still not really sure, but definitely not Houston.

So, Morey moved on.  He started using "poison pill" contracts to lure free agents to Houston.  "Poison pill" makes Morey seem quite evil, but essentially Morey just took advantage of a rule that allowed him to offer a considerable amount of money in the final year of a player's contract that other teams would be unable to match because of other cap responsibilities.  His ploy worked. 

This past offseason, Morey was able to lure Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin to Houston.  Morey coveted both of these players because advanced statistics really like both guys.  As detailed by Zach Lowe earlier this week, Asik is one of the best defenders in the league.  This is something that may be difficult to value by simply looking at a box score and seeing Asik average 3 points and 5 rebounds per game.  Time will tell if he can do this as a starter, but Morey believes his numbers will simply extrapolate over more minutes and Asik will become an above-average starting center in the NBA.  The advanced statistics also suggest that Lin will improve.  Lin does a great job getting to the basket and his true shooting percentage would also suggest that he can be a productive NBA point guard for years to come.  (For an even greater (read: nerdier) breakdown, check out this analysis of his advanced statistic report card here.)

Even with these two additions, the Rockets were still not a playoff team and this is something Morey willingly admitted.  He even went as far to say, "We’re probably not going to win the title next year," in a radio interview this summer.  He may not have thought the Rockets would win this year, but he did have a vision for the future.

Then the perfect opportunity presented itself.

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James Harden is actually perfect for Daryl Morey.

Morey needed a superstar for his team and Harden is that superstar.  Now some may question whether or not Harden is a superstar.  Harden has only been performing at an all-star level as a sixth man, but no one knows whether or not he can do that as a team's first option...well except for Morey. 

He shoots the ball well from the three point line.  He gets to the free throw line a staggering amount.  He makes a free throw for every two field goal attempts, a rate nearly twice that of Kobe Bryant.  He rarely takes mid range jumpers and attacks the basket with reckless abandon.  His efficiency numbers are incredible.  The time he spends on a court is time well spent.  In short, Harden is the player the advanced analytics community would create if asked to create a player from scratch.

Numbers would suggest that Harden will be more than capable of leading a team, but unfortunately, as the overused cliche goes, the game isn't played on paper, which leaves the Rockets in an unusual position.  I don't think a single team has ever had more question marks going into a season.  Can James Harden be the number one option on a playoff team?  Is Jeremy Lin actually good?  Can Asik double his minutes and still be an effective player?

All of these questions lead to the most important question: Are the Rockets going to be a playoff team or a failed advanced statistics science project?

I might not have the answer to that question right now, but I do know I couldn't be more excited to find out the answer.

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It was impossible to read a season preview this season without reading two universal truths: The Heat will represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals and the Thunder and Lakers are the only two teams that could represent the Western Conference.

People could make other picks for shock and awe, but they just weren't realistic.  The Finals were going to feature the Heat and the Lakers or Thunder.  That was it.  And it was going to be an epic NBA Finals.  Either the young guns would get to go at it again or NBA fans would be treated to Kobe vs. Lebron for the first time.  Now the Finals will still be epic, but it doesn't seem like there is much of a chance that the young guns from OKC will be in the showdown.

The Thunder will certainly still be a title contender and be one of the best teams in the league.  Kevin Martin will be able to score off the bench very efficiently just like James Harden, but the Thunder just won't have the same edge.  Harden was the player that gave the Thunder their edge.

Just ask the Mavericks. Maybe they'll remember the 29 points he dropped on them in the closeout game of their first round playoff series last year. They might even remember that 15 of Harden's points came in the fourth quarter.

Or maybe ask the Spurs.  When the Thunder's set broke down late in Game 5, who hit the step-back three to finish the Spurs with 30 seconds left?  Or how about the backbreaking four-point play in that same series?

You could ask Kobe Bryant too.  I'm sure he remembers who wouldn't back down from him and guarded him for a majority of their playoff series last year.  He'll probably remember the guy that was in his face all night.

Though I'm sure some of the things James Harden did for the Thunder last year will be replicated with ease, I just don't think the attitude Harden gave the team can be copied.  Once again, as the overused cliche states, the game isn't played on paper.  Harden's numbers might be replicated, but his attitude can't be.  Without that attitude, the Thunder's chemistry will change completely and thus, the Thunder just won't be the same team.

The Thunder might not be able to win a championship this year, but with the draft picks and talent Sam Presti has acquired, the Thunder will definitely be capable of "winning a championship" in the next five years.

The NBA's U.S. Soccer Team

My brother has been over in Malaysia for the last five months.  This has made communicating with him relatively difficult.  With a 13 hour time difference, there aren't many times during the day that we can actually get a chance to have a conversation.  Instead of talking, our communication has turned into random text messages and emails.  I have woke up to random text messages about an albino Chinese men and Indian men with mullets and mustaches.  I have woke up to emails discussing fantasy football trades and birthday presents, but this Saturday I received his most interesting email yet.

After thinking about which sport has the best athletes, my brother decided to assemble a soccer lineup consisting of American-born NBA players.  He also functioned according to the following assumptions:

• They [American-born NBA players] grew up playing soccer.
• It's similar to Europe in that the best players are all going to be pushed towards striker/offensive midfield early in their career (i.e. obviously someone like Russell Westbrook would be a great defenseman, but he's gonna be a striker because of his overall skill level)
• There seems to be a natural disadvantage in soccer once you hit the height of about 6'6", so you have to be a freak to be considered for the squad if you're over 6'6" (aka Lebron - so the lineup is mostly guards).

He then asked me to forward the email to my soccer-loving friend Troy Luengen.  Each of them wrote out detailed responses that I don't really feel like including, but here are their lineups.

Doug decided on a 4-4-1-1 formation.  His lineup seems relatively well-composed and smart.  I think his biggest mistake comes in the form of Steve Blake at right back.  I know he believed that it was absolutely necessary to have a white guy in the starting lineup and I have to agree with his sentiment.  It's a necessity, but I feel like you can find a better player to fill that role.

Troy decided on a 4-4-3.  His lineup is clearly illegal.  Troy decided to put both Steve Nash (Canada/South Africa) and Jose Calderon (Spain) in the lineup.  I blame these foreign inclusions on Troy's illiteracy, but looking past this clear violation, he put together a pretty good lineup.  Also, reading his breakdown was one of the highlights of my today because it was clear he spent a long time studying NBA stats.  I have to give him credit for completing the exercise even though he knows almost nothing about the NBA.

Finally, here is my lineup:

Goalkeeper: Kevin Love. This fulfills my white guy requirement as well as giving me someone in goal who has incredible instincts and intelligence. No one in the league understands the direction a ball will go in better than K-Love. Also has tremendous hands and as the best outlet passer in the league, he would be unbelievable in distribution. He'd be starting counters right and left.

Defenders: Eric Gordon. He will be in the center of my defense. At 6'3" and 220 lbs, he's a brickhouse that can push strikers off the ball. Little bit of pitbull in him. He's not getting outmuscled in the box. On one side of Gordon, Tony Allen. You guys have already laid out everything you need to know about him. With his strength and quickness, no reason he shouldn't be a top-flight back. On the other side of Gordon, Andre Igoudala. He showed this summer that he's willing to sacrifice for the greater good. He'd be a lockdown defender. And his leaping ability would help him keep teams from cross anything into the box.

Defensive Midfielders: Rajon Rondo. Rondo is the black Michael Bradley. They are both 6'1" and around 180 lbs. Rondo would be about the same player as Bradley. Strong enough to help in defending as a CDM, but would also be the player that starts a majority of the team's forward movement. He has shown in the NBA that he would rather distribute than finish. Not sure there is a better fit for a basketball player in soccer. Deron Williams. Essentially the same argument except he's a little bit thicker than Rondo. Would be able to throw his body around and make some tackles as well as obviously distributing the ball.

Wingers: Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. This seems like a no brainer as well for me. The NBA's two most dynamic playmakers out on each wing attacking. They both have tremendous pace. They both are elite athletes. They both are very creative with the ball. They just seem like the perfect fit to cross ball after ball into the box for my two strikers.

Central Attacking Midfielder: Chris Paul. The NBA's best point guard will be the focus of my attack. He sees the floor better than anyone so he should see the field better than anyone as well. Also, since he is so unselfish he will be able to feed the ball to my strikers without feeling the need to take any shots.

Strikers: Lebron James. As Troy has already mentioned, he has NO REGARD FOR HUMAN LIFE. And as Doug has already mentioned, he's a freak. Fastest kid alive.James Harden. This was my absolute hardest decision for my entire squad. I needed someone that could really score, but also wouldn't have a problem deferring to Lebron when he decided to take over. I thought long and hard about having Kobe in this position, but I worried he may start taking too many shots to keep the attention on him. Harden is perfect because he is a creative finisher, but he also knows when to pick his spots. When he needs to be aggressive, he can do that and when he needs to lay back and let Lebron dominate, he can do that too.

I really wanted to put Kevin Durant and Metta World Peace on the squad, but I just couldn't figure out a way to put either of them on the pitch. MWP is just too big. He wouldn't be quick enough to keep up with world-class soccer players. And KD is just too lanky. I can't think of a soccer player of his size being successful. Just wouldn't work.

This was a lot of fun.  I want to thank my brother for coming up with such a randomly awesome idea.