Many people think this past season should get me excited about the Michael Vick Era. Vick is the most exciting player in football. He is also one of the strongest candidates for this year's NFL MVP. This season he proved to the football world that he is a much improved passer and a much better quarterback than he has ever been. Everyone knows how great of an athlete he is, but this year Vick finally proved that he can successfully play the quarterback position, which is something he had been unable to do in the past.
Knowing all of this I am still unexcited.
I have remained adamant throughout this season that Vick will always be one of the league's most exciting players, but he is not the type of player that wins your team a championship. As a season goes on, teams typically begin to figure out Vick and can begin to slow him down, making him less effective. This becomes especially true in the playoffs. After seeing Vick play in 16 different games, teams get a better understanding of the defensive schemes that work against him and the ones that don't, which leads to a more sophisticated defensive approach by most playoff teams. With strong defenses armed with smart gameplans, Vick has a 2-3 playoff record as a starting quarterback.
To win the Super Bowl in the modern NFL, there are only two types of quarterbacks your team can start. Your starting quarterback either needs to be a game manager that doesn't make mistakes or an elite quarterback. And by elite quarterback, I mean a quarterback. A field general. A guy that can make all the throws. A guy who makes the right calls at the line. A guy who can lead a team up and down the field flawlessly with his ARM.
Since 2001, here are the starting quarterbacks of every Super Bowl winner:
- 2001 - Baltimore Ravens - Trent Dilfer
- 2002 - New England Patriots - Tom Brady
- 2003 - Tampa Bay Bucaaneers - Brad Johnson
- 2004 - New England Patriots - Tom Brady
- 2005 - New England Patriots - Tom Brady
- 2006 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger
- 2007 - Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning
- 2008 - New York Giants - Eli Manning
- 2009 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger
- 2010 - New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees
In that group of players, there are game managers (Dilfer, Johnson, 2006 Roethlisberger, E. Manning) and elite quarterbacks that won the game for their respective teams (Brady, P. Manning, 2008 Roethlisberger, Brees). I know this is going to be sickening to a lot of people, but even with all of the amazing talent Michael Vick has he cannot be a part of either of these groups. He will never be an elite quarterback that can win a game with his arm, but his ridiculous skill set will not allow him to be a game manager either.
Earlier this season, I insisted that the Eagles should have gone with Kevin Kolb as their starting quarterback. I went on to explain that playing Vick for the whole season would put the Eagles into a very sticky situation at the end of the season with Michael Vick as a free agent. Well, the Eagles started Vick for the entire season and now they are insisting on signing him to a long-term contract. Reports out of Philadelphia are that Kevin Kolb wants to be a starting quarterback and it's pretty obvious that Philadelphia will not be the place for him to do this.
In my mind I see this ending only one way. The Eagles will certainly sign Michael Vick to a large extension and be forced to trade Kolb, but there is one big problem: the pending collective bargaining agreement. Nothing can happen this offseason until a new agreement is signed. This long period of time will prevent teams from making rush judgments and a quick trade for Kolb. The Eagles are currently asking for two first round picks for the fourth year quarterback from the University of Houston. There is no way any team in the league will give up two first round picks. Asking for two first round picks is simply a matter of posturing by the Eagles organization, but every GM in the league knows that the Eagles cannot afford to pay for two starting quarterbacks especially if they give Vick the huge contract he is expected to sign. With the Eagles backed into a corner, they will be forced to give up Kolb for considerably less than they currently want.
The Kevin Kolb trade will lead to years of mediocrity by the Eagles. The Michael Vick Era will lead to years of first round playoff losses and near playoff misses. I have emphasized many times before that the NFL is cyclical. It is absolutely necessary to experience bad times for at least one season to once again ascend to greatness. The only exceptions to this rule are teams led by the two greatest quarterbacks of all-time, the Patriots and Colts, and it could be argued that even the Colts could use some high-end draft picks to reload their team for another multiple year playoff run.
Though I have disputed much of Michael Vick's success thus far in this article, there is no disputing that he can singlehandedly will a mediocre team to the playoffs. The Eagles defense this season was once again very mediocre. As a team, the Eagles didn't really deserve to make the playoffs, but Michael Vick willed them into the playoffs through a series of miraculous plays and games. Throughout the years, Vick has proved that he can take mediocre teams and even bad teams into the playoffs, but the problem is bad teams don't win in the playoffs.
With Vick, the Eagles will never have a bad year. At worst, the Eagles will be an 8-8 team which will lead to a lot of mid-level NFL Draft picks. Without an influx of young, upper level talent the Eagles will be unable to get the players they need to improve the team and make it capable of deep playoff runs on a yearly basis. Vick's spectacular talent will lead to mediocre teams overachieving during his entire contract, but never to any Super Bowl wins or terrible seasons. With Vick, the Eagles will be stuck in NFL limbo and are doomed to stay there until his contract expires. And as an Eagles fan, I cannot wait to see who's next. Too bad I'm going to have to wait five years...
I hope the Dolphins reap the benefits of this. All though I'm not sure if I'm ready to give up on Henne or not.
ReplyDeleteKolb won't be traded. Philly will want 2 1st round picks, and the teams that would trade for him can't afford to give up those picks
ReplyDeleteI referenced that. I don't see anyway that the Eagles will be able to obtain two first round picks for him as well. Thats why they will lower their demands and settle for less.
ReplyDeleteThis is ridiculous... sometimes teams have to trade some qb's that are destined to be pretty good. I'm a packers fan, we had to trade some qbs that ended up being pretty good, (brunell, aaron brooks) not great players but definately ones with potential, such as kolb and we survived. Also as far as draft picks go and getting mediocre player...think about this. in 2004 the packers were a 10 win team, in the draft that year they drafted Aaron Rodgers with the 24th pick. No talent in the mid rounds eh?
ReplyDeleteAnd Tom Brady was picked with the 199th pick of the draft. No talent in the 6th round eh? You can do that with just about any pick in the draft.
ReplyDeleteThe main idea of this post is to address the fact that Michael Vick is not capable of being either a great quarterback or a game manager. On the other hand, Kevin Kolb could certainly become a game manager.
would u rather have aaron rodgers, or Tim Couch, David Carr, jeff george, joey harrington, akili smith,rick mirer, heath shuler,ryan leaf?
ReplyDeleteall i'm sayin is that your saying you need to have bad years to get high draft picks and talent, its simply untrue. top picks are usually overhyped guys like reggie bush and vince young. the fact that u said in ur last post that u can find talent with any pick in the draft proves you don't need to purposely lose more games (playing kolb not vick) in order to get high draft picks
ReplyDelete1. Why are you talking about Aaron Rodgers?
ReplyDelete2. You went back to 1990 for Jeff George. So that means I get Sam Bradford, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick...and that's only back until 2000. You can manipulate draft position to look good for both sides of the argument, but as a whole, when drafting players higher you are more likely to find a high impact player.
3. You're not losing on purpose with Kolb. You're helping develop a young quarterback that can definitely be a game manager in the west coast system.
4. You're still avoiding my Vick question...Is he a great quarterback?
1. I'm talking about rodgers cuz he's a mid to late round pick that turned good.
ReplyDelete2. i'm not sure how u can put sam bradford in that mix as good or carson palmer or vick since u already said he's not capable of winning a super bowl.
3. I'm not sure you can say kolb can definately be a game manager. and if all u really want is a game manager call up trent dilfer or kyle boller. In order to simply manage games you need to Dominate in all other facets. since the eagles pass like 70 percent of the time they need a big time qb not a game manager.
4. your avoiding mine. I dont think vick is great right now, but i don't think you take and play the other player just because he's not joe montana. When you played hoops did you like when coaches played inferior freshman rather than solid juniors or seniors just because they couldn't win the national championship?
1-2. I'll just quote myself again because you're clearly not getting the idea. "You can manipulate draft position to look good for both sides of the argument, but as a whole, when drafting players higher you are more likely to find a high impact player." Every statistical trend will have exceptions.
ReplyDelete3. My friend is a Ravens fan and even he will tell you Kyle Boller was so bad he wasn't able to be a game manager. I agree they need a big time QUARTERBACK. I capitalize it because you don't grasp that they need a QUARTERBACK, not an athlete. Vick is a great athletic player, not a great quarterback.
4. Thanks for answering my question. When it comes to running a professional sports team, it doesn't matter what you "like" as a fan. The only thing that matters is winning Super Bowls. If you're not able to win a Super Bowl with the team you have, you need to take the necessary steps to turn your team into a Super Bowl winner, not just go for it all every year.
i'm gonna stop this now cuz your a pessimistic fan. you can't say that mike vick can't win a super bowl cuz athletes can't win one...there has NEVER been an athlete comparable to Vick so maybe he's good enuf to be the first. Steve young won one, yes he was probably a better qb, or was it rice? but he also wasn't athletic...who know its up for debate if vick can win one
ReplyDeleteBig difference between being pessimistic and realistic.
ReplyDelete